Chasm about chashm

Chashm is the official name of a batch of pressurized heavy water nuclear reactors that China is planning to sell to Pakistan over the next two years or so. Although they are clearly meant to produce nuclear power, and as such belongs firmly to the realm of civil nuclear cooperation, opinion is divided in the Indian media establishment on how India should react, diplomatically, to this announcement by China. More specifically, the concern relates to how much, and in what specific ways, this proposed deal is going to affect India's strategic concerns. There is some amount of suspicion in some quarters that Pakistan might use them to augment its nuclear weapons program while others suggest that India has no business getting alarmed since this deal is unlikely to boost Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability in any significant way.

One school of opinion points to the alleged violation of a key norm of nuclear reactor supply as stipulated by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, of which China is a member since 2004. The norm in question provides that nuclear reactors may be supplied to only those countries that that has full-scope safeguards in place. Secondly, concern is expressed also about the long history of China Pakistan strategic cooperation fulled by their traditional hostility to India, a partnership that India's rising stature in the international stage or its deepening ties with the United States including the recently concluded civil nuclear cooperation program has done nothing to dilute either in depth or in scope. However, advocates of this line suggest no immediate retaliatory step such as lodging a protest with the NSG, of which India is not a member anyway, or working towards concluding a matching deal with a friendly nation. For the moment, they advise that India follow a wait and watch policy without lowering its guard, and remain prepared for a matching deal, if it becomes a necessity at a later stage.

The other school is of the opinion that the deal is not going to contribute much to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. China has defended the sale as part of an agreement concluded well before its entry into NSG. Now if that is a sufficient defense is something that is best left to the discretion of NSG members, given that India's opinion on the issue is unlikely to influence the eventual decision. Second, these reactors are going to be open to regular IAEA inspection, making it very difficult, if not altogether impossible, to divert fissile material from these reactors towards making more nuclear warheads.

On a closer study, the difference between these two schools of editorial opinion turns out to be more a matter of degree than kind. Both of them strongly advise against a knee jerk reaction, looking clearly to move beyond the hyphenated framework within which the security concerns of the two south Asian had been bracketed by everyone concerned till very recently. Indeed, the zero sum game attitude that had formerly enveloped the defense establishments in these countries is slowly and steadily moving out, so far as India's approach to these issues are concerned. It is a most welcome development although India would do well to continue to study the developments with utmost attention and an open mind.